?

Log in

No account? Create an account

Intraders favor Ron Paul over John McCain - Open Knowledge — LiveJournal

Sep. 21st, 2007

02:33 pm - Intraders favor Ron Paul over John McCain

Previous Entry Share Next Entry

Traders on the Intrade presidential futures market now offer better prices on Paul contracts than on McCain contracts. (EDIT: to win the Republican party nomination, not to win the election)

Original: craschworks - comments

Tags:

Comments:

[User Picture]
From:other
Date:September 21st, 2007 09:43 pm (UTC)

Are you sure?

(Link)
2008.PRES.PAUL
Ron Paul to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 1.7 1.8 1.7 3403 +0.0

2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 1.9 2.0 2.0 20151 0
(Reply) (Thread)
[User Picture]
From:crasch
Date:September 21st, 2007 09:53 pm (UTC)

Re: Are you sure?

(Link)
Sorry, I was referring to the Republican primaries:

2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
M 4.4 4.7 3.9 143627 0

2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
M 4.9 5.0 5.0 61156 +0.1
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]
From:polyanarch
Date:September 21st, 2007 10:02 pm (UTC)

This makes no sense

(Link)
If anything R. Paul has a better chance of winning the presidential election WITHOUT gaining the Republican party nomination (because of a possible Libertarian party nomination) than McCain does. Pray tell me how in hell McCain could possibly win the presidency if he doesn't get the Republican nomination?

Therefore if Paul has a better chance of winning the Republican nomination then how does he have a worse chance than McCain in winning the election with McCain then out of the picture????

I just don't understand...

Maybe I'm missing something or just stupid.

(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]
From:other
Date:September 21st, 2007 10:09 pm (UTC)

Re: This makes no sense

(Link)
People are putting out money betting that Ron Paul will the election and yet you pick THAT as making no sense.
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]
From:polyanarch
Date:September 21st, 2007 10:15 pm (UTC)

Re: This makes no sense

(Link)
HAHAHA!

Yeah. Like they would EVER let him win even if everyone voted for him...

Can you say "Yehaaaaw!"???
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)
[User Picture]
From:the23
Date:September 22nd, 2007 11:03 am (UTC)

Re: This makes no sense

(Link)
it is assumed that

P(paul wins given republican nomination) < P(mccain wins given republican nomination).
(Reply) (Parent) (Thread)