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November 2nd, 2004 - Open Knowledge — LiveJournal

Nov. 2nd, 2004

06:47 am - Pork bellies or the presidency: The market will choose

Via Marginal Revolution:


Pork bellies or the presidency: The market will choose
Salon's reporter puts his own money on the line, betting that an Iowa futures market holds the key to the White House.

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By Farhad Manjoo

June 29, 2004 | Last week wasn't the best for George W. Bush. At home, "Fahrenheit 9/11," Michael Moore's anti-Bush polemic, broke box office records. In Iraq, blood spilled anew -- bombings, beheadings and brutality dominated the headlines. Then there was the foul-mouthed vice president, the bestselling former president, and a couple of dispiriting polls. In other words, taken together, these seem like good times for John Kerry.

Yet last week on the Iowa Electronic Markets, I dumped my shares of John Kerry futures -- and I was proud to do it, too. The IEM is a real-money Web-based trading system run by the University of Iowa's business school. Among some political scientists and economists it is thought to be extremely good at predicting the results of presidential elections. This should cause heartache to Democrats, because ever since June 1, when the IEM's most popular presidential market opened for trading on the 2004 race, shares of John Kerry futures have been badly trailing those of Bush.

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